MVN - Most Valuable Network

Forecasting

Well, Billy Beane is believed to have perfected it…forecasting the performance of a player and, to GM’s and those of us in auction leagues, value.

MVN blogger Jake Berlin in “The Bard’s Room,” the White Sox site here on MVN, recently posted “Regression,” referencing Tangotiger’s 2007 Marcel Projections. Essentially, one can download projections on how hitters and pitchers will do during the 2007 season.

I also came across an old link to Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster site, and his article, “The Great Myths of Projective Accuracy.” Shandler notes:

But through all their fine efforts at attempting to predict the future, there have been certain constants. The core of every system has been comprised of pretty much the same elements:
* Players will perform within the framework of their past history and/or trends.
* Skills will develop and decline according to age.
* Statistics will be shaped by a player’s health, expected role and home ballpark.

These are the elements that keep all projections within a range of believability. This is what prevents us from predicting a 40-HR season out of Juan Pierre or 40 SBs for David Ortiz. However, within this range of believability is a great black hole where any semblance of precision seems to disappear. Yes, we know that Albert Pujols is a leading power hitter, but whether he is going to hit 40 HRs, or 45, or 35, or 50, is a mystery.

You see, while all these systems are built upon the same basic elements, they also are constrained by the same global limitations. We are all still trying to project…
* a bunch of human beings
* each with their own individual skill sets
* each with their own individual rates of growth and decline
* each with different abilities to resist and recover from injury
* each limited to opportunities determined by other people
* and each generating a group of statistics largely affected by tons of external noise.

So what does this mean for Brewers’ GM Doug Melvin and skipper Ned Yost in determining who to play, and when, for the 2007 season? First, every Brewers’ hitter will be affected, somewhat, by the change to Jim Skaalen as the hitting coach. Skaalen will start from scratch in looking at the swing, the stance, and probably even the bat weight. Then, as Shandler noted, some players have increased their mental and physical abilities, while others likely have seen at least their physical abilities decline, or at least change–e.g., J.J. Hardy may approach his pre-season training differently as the result of his injury last season, thus over emphasizing some muscles, while favoring others. Of course, the pitchers’ stats and performance this season will no doubt be impacted by seeing Alfonso Soriano 14+ games this year versus half that last year…not to mention seeing former teammate Carlos Lee; Jeff Suppan will have to face Albert Pujols and the Cardinals this year instead of the Milwaukee Brewers…and we know Derrick Turnbow will get a lot less saves than last year.

Of course, there are daily variables as well…not only who the batters will be facing on any given day (and that pitcher’s set of changes), but also, in Milwaukee’s case, whether or not the roof is open or not and, if not, what the wind velocity, wind direction and humidity are. Even a player’s second AB against a pitcher has a whole new set of variables: the pitcher’s thoughts on what the hitter did in his first AB, the hitter’s adjustments based on what he saw during his first AB, and, of course, differences in pitches based on how many baserunners are on base, what the score is, and how many outs there are.

What’s this all mean? Hey, maybe Geoff Jenkins might be a .300 hitter this year!

David Hannes
Copyright 2007

My Arbitration Predictions

Well, well, well…if I recall correctly, I made predictions on final salaries and contracts for arbitration-eligible players last year, so I thought I’d try again (practice makes perfect, eh?). As 1) my computer is old and runs very slow, and 2) I’m kinda lazy, I’ll just post my thoughts and let you, our beloved readers, do the digging of comparable salaries to inform me where I’m too high or too low…so without further ado:

Recall that I already posted:
Some quick numbers then…Capuano will make at least $3.25 million, as will Estrada; Graffanino will get at least $2.5 million, as should Billy Hall; Mench should get at least $3.5 million (I’ve heard closer to $5 million, but who really knows these days?)...

Chris Capuano:
‘06 salary: $450,000, 3 years experience
Brewers’ offer: $3.5 million
Player’s offer: $4.25 million
End Result: $3.85 million for ‘07; $4.15 million for ‘08; club option for $5.5 million for ‘09 or $0.5 million buyout. Capuano wants some security, and a 2-year deal for $8 million will make him a happy camper.

Billy Hall:
‘06 salary: $418,000, 4 years experience (3 of which as a reserve)
Brewers’ offer: $2.75 million
Player’s offer: $3.5 million
End Result: $3.0 million for ‘07 only, plus $0.5 million in incentives…Hall rejected a multi-year deal last year, but will settle to avoid a hearing…and Melvin will want to keep his budding superstar happy, giving him some incentives to reach his submitted arbitration figure.

Johnny Estrada:
‘06 salary: $2.0 million with 5 years experience
Brewers’ offer: $3.75 million
Player’s offer: $4.5 million
End Result: $4.0 million for ‘07 with $250,000-$300,000 in incentives, $5.0 million for ‘08, with club option for $6.5 million for ‘09 or $1.5 million buyout. Melvin wants to lock-up Estrada, yet be somewhat cautious.

Kevin Mench:
‘06 salary: $2.8 million, 4 years experience
Brewers’ offer: $3.5 million
Player’s offer: $4.25 million
End Result: Arbitration panel sides with the Brewers and Mench gets a one-year deal for ‘07 for $3.5 million.

Tony Graffanino:
‘06 salary: $2.05 million, 10 years (mostly as a reserve)
Brewers’ offer: $2.6 million
Player’s offer: $3.25 million
End Result: Arbitration panel awards Graffanino the $3.25 million; Graffanino holds out and is rewarded for his experience.

Claudio Vargas:
‘06 salary: $1.275 million, 3 years experience
Brewers’ offer: $1.7 million
Player’s offer: $2.1 million
End Result: $1.825 million for ‘07; I forgot about Vargas’ contract in my earlier post; Vargas’ agent will want to avoid arbitration, and settle for less than the midpoint.

Okay, then…fire away!

David Hannes
Copyright 2007

What the…?

MLB.com’s depth chart of the Crew’s ‘07 rotation enters the debates as to (1) if Jeff Suppan is now the “ace” of the Brewers, and (2) how well Sheets is regarded:
…they peg…Capuano as the ace, followed by Sheets, Suppan, Bush and Vargas.

McCalvy notes that it should be Sheets, then Capuano…and that Bush may get the nod over Suppan as the #3 starter.

David Hannes
Copyright 2007

Who deserves a multi-year deal?

Brewers’ GM Doug Melvin is no doubt busy this week trying to work out contracts with the 6 remaining arbitration-eligible players:

1. SP Chris Capuano

2. SP Claudio Vargas

3. C Johnny Estrada

4. IF Tony Graffanino

5. OF Billy Hall

6. OF Kevin Mench

Essentially, all have been offered arbitration. Note that Melvin’s M.O. is to avoid arbitration hearings at all cost (if I recall correctly, the last one that actually went to a hearing and to the panel was back in 1992)…at this stage there are 5 possible outcomes:

1. The team and player reach a 1-year deal before exchanging figures.

2. The team and player reach a multi-year deal before exchanging figures.

3. The team and player reach a 1-year deal after exchanging figures.

4. The team and player reach a multi-year deal after exchanging figures.

5. The two sides cannot reach an agreement, and a 3-member arbitration panel hears arguements from both sides and picks one of the two figures.

The reality is that both sides have a pretty good idea, within a few hundred thousand dollars, of where the other’s submitted figure will wind up, and that having each side commit to a figure will more clearly define the negotiations. For example, say Kevin Mench’s agent submits a figure of $6.0 million, while Doug Melvin submits a figure of $3.8 million–once these are out on the table, both sides know that an arbitration hearing will result in one figure or the other. Say, then, that the Brewers’ representatives conclude that there is no way in hedes that Mench could convince the panel that he’s worth $6 million, Melvin then can shut down negotiations on Mench’s contract and just wait until the hearing.

Of course, it is rarely that easy…as players’ agents have a pretty good sense of the market and usually submit a figure that they know they have a shot at getting. Also, with 6 potential hearings, Melvin would certainly like to get most of the deals done beforehand–not only to save a bit on fees, but also to save time, get his payroll finalized, and avoid any chance of ill will caused by a hearing where he’d have to stress the limitations of a player.

The ‘07 group has a new twist, however–will Melvin be more gun-shy of a multi-year deal to avoid a hearing? Recall that last year, Melvin inked Brady Clark to a 2-year, $7.0 million deal to lock up Clark…and now finds himself saddled with three unwanted contracts: Clark’s, as well as Jenkins’ and Turnbow’s.

Therefore, here are my predictions on the six pending contracts:

Capuano: Melvin’s knows that Cappy’s late season meltdown in ‘06 might not have been a fluke, and that Cappy, despite being an All-Star, may be a first-half pitcher…that said, he knows that if he doesn’t lock-up Cappy for 2008 this year, he may have to pay him $7-$8 million for ‘08 if he has another 18 win season. Melvin won’t go 3 years, however, but will likely push for a 2-year deal, with a club option for a third year; as Cappy, if I recall correctly, benefitted from incentive clauses in ‘05, Melvin will shoot for getting some of these included to save on his base salary.

Estrada: Melvin knows that a 2-year deal would be beneficial, here, too–while its hard to know how well Estrada will do with a new ballpark, new hitting coach, and a whole new set of pitchers (well, except for Vargas and Aquino) to call, Estrada is key to the Brewers’ long-term plans…look for another 2-year deal here as well.

Hall: With the move to the OF, Hall’s value is now a bit less certain…besides being earmarked to start everyday, he’ll need to learn at least one new position this year…and possibly another OF position next year. This will be Melvin’s toughest call, but I think he wants to reward Hall for his patience and his potential and will also go for a 2-year deal with Hall, too.

Graffanino: Melvin only wants to commit to a 1-year deal here, and this one might go to arbitration…I can’t see Melvin giving away the farm on a reserve infielder, but you never know….

Vargas: Hmmm…Melvin should only be interested in a 1-year deal with Vargas, too, given his depth at starting pitching and Vargas’ inexperience.

Mench: Melvin would love to get a 2-year deal, provided the price is right…and he has a viable offer for trading either Mench and the new contract or one of the other outfielders. The reality, however, is that, until Mench proves himself, he’ll only get a 1-year deal.

David Hannes

Copyright 2007